This week we publish an interesting contribution of Leonardo Lucacci, City Council of the PDL in B.ni Newfoundland, on the economic crisis: a very personal point of view, technical, practical analysis of a father who cares about the future. The Editor wishes to thank the readers for which reserve account to the blog. Continues to write and send le vostre riflessioni, nei limiti delle possibilità editoriali de La Voce del Martedì, ci impegneremo a pubblicare i vostri contenuti. Buona lettura.
L'attuale crisi economica è stata affrontata in mille sfaccettature: il crack bancario, quello finanziario speculativo, gli effetti della globalizzazione, le inefficenze statali, la politica monetaria europea, la concorrenza sleale della Cina, la dimensione delle imprese italiane, ecc.. Non ho ne l'autorità, ne le competenze di avventurarmi in un tema così complicato. Quello però che vorrei portare a conoscenza di tutti coloro che avranno la pazienza di leggermi è un My thoughts, my reading of the crisis, that time I became particularly inspired by the experience of my work which brings me to confront the "real economy". Obviously my thoughts I will also base it on economic reality. I examine a period between the entry of the euro as currency exchange, from 2002 to 2008. During this period, I observe the changes in the prices of certain products and activities. I think the price of property, that of some food, gasoline and diesel fuel. Then look at some economic data such as inflation, the Euribor, the rate € / $, the price of oil and gold. And in the end we try to pull the conclusion. From 2002 to 2008 house prices and more specifically the houses have almost doubled. An apartment with 5 rooms in 2000 you could buy with 300 million of "old francs" in 2002/2003 already cost € 200,000, or 33% more. The average data tell us in fact that in 1999 house prices per square meter (deflated) were € 2,800, while in 2007 to reach € 3,900. past to some food consumption is high. For example, the price of milk paid by consumers, rose from about 0.75 € / l in 1990 to 1.40 € / l in 2007 (+86%). It 'good to point out that this happened while the price of milk production has collapsed! then we see the bread. E 'increased from € 1.03 per kilogram in 1995 to € 2.70 per kilogram in 2007 (+262%). Let the cost of transport. The price of unleaded at the pump in 2002 cost € 1.154 / l in 2008 stood at € 1.390 / lt. Then increased by 20%. The oil in the same period grew from € 0.86 / l in 2002 to € 1.51 / l in 2008, an increase of 76% going to go further than the price of gasoline. If you remember that was the year when diesel cars were bought even by those who made 10,000 km a year. And "right" the sign of the oil has punished a blunder by increasing the price of gasoline. rate that is used as a benchmark for borrowing money (loans for house purchase, corporate finance, etc.), the Euribor, started from a 2002 which was closed at 3% to to 2008 to 3.29%. Apparently so little has changed. But it is not. In fact, until 2005 the rate was always below 3% until you start to climb from June 2006 to reach the peak of 5.11% in October 2008, a period in which the crisis had badly knocked on the door. Even after the summer of 2008 the companies had stopped abruptly. The fax did not receive more orders. The turnover era ridotto al lumicino. Anche le più grandi aziende, quelle più strutturate, che pianificano, avevano davanti uno scenario imprevisto e che sembrava irreversibile: la chiusura dell'attività. Poi l'Euribor è bruscamente calato sotto il 2%. Infine vediamo come si è comportato il cambio €/$. Nel 2002 si parte da una sostanziale parità a 1,00 e una crescita inesorabile fino a toccare 1,58 ad agosto 2008. Per poi chiudere a 1,34 a dicembre dello stesso anno. Nel periodo analizzato il tasso di inflazione è oscillato rimanendo intorno al 2%. Ebbene tutte questi dati mi fanno indurre a evidenziare che con l'introduzione dell'euro l'Italia non ha più potuto far leva sulla svalutazione, rendendo competitivi i prodotti sul lato prezzi. La mancanza di una vera politica economica europea ha indotto la BCE a tutelare la moneta solo sull'inflazione, anche a costo di ampliare il divario tra la finanza e l'economia reale. Solo di fronte ad un probabile scoppio di una crisi economica epocale, la BCE ha iniziato ad operare anche “contro” le sue prerogative, acquistando titoli di stato e inondando il mercato di liquidità finalizzata ad abbassare il costo del denaro. Ma ormai era troppo tardi. L'uomo della strada si è ritrovato a lavorare in aziende che pur essendo ben strutturate, hanno perso competitività per the prices of their products, in exchange against € $, our currency has seen good progress, thus making it difficult to export. While both the Italian market saw reduced domestic consumption, as a result of increases in prices that I mentioned above, which together have contributed to the fear and / or actual loss of jobs, to significantly reduce household consumption. What can I say. To me, the crisis in Italy is not over yet and the impact on businesses will begin to see in 2011. What to do? To tell the truth. I do not know, because it is something greater than ourselves, of our country. Unless you come to govern a "crazy" that performs real reforms. But now I see no fool. So all that remains is the "pull a living" or expect intervention "foreigner" (perhaps a strong recovery in Germany and / or USA), which, moreover, has always been the sad story of our nation.
Leonardo Lucacci
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